China's macro economy has undergone more than 30 years of rapid development, has entered the actual second-strongest economic entity. The rapid development of the economy, China's real estate market has brought huge impetus, so that the real estate market bubble and gradually enlarged.
Is there a bubble in China's housing prices? Andy Xie, The Economist, pointed out that the bubble was huge, and that it was a turning point in the property market, while many economists pointed out that the bubble was not serious and would not enter a real inflection.
In fact, for housing prices, all countries in the world have a common way of computing, that is, the highest price is a person who does not eat or drink 10 years of income can buy a house, if it is on the installment of their daily expenses in addition to 20 years can pay off the loan; Then we can calculate the per capita income and work distance in each city and you will know the price of the house. Beijing, for example, currently has the highest school district room of 300,000/square meters. And the school district room so high price, buy a house person's income must be more than 3 million annual salary can buy, and since to buy School District room, annual salary is so high?
Look at the statistics, such as just beginning to statistics Beijing housing prices, is two-ring-side housing prices, and then real estate rapidly outward expansion, immediately statistics to the three-ring four-ring five-ring until today, including the Beijing suburb of the average price together. It looks as if house prices are not going up very well, but in fact the 10-year price of two rings has risen by more than 10 times times or more, and income is unlikely to reach a 10 times-fold gain. This can be done in contrast to house prices and income disparities.
Look at Shanghai, ten years ago the main real estate market is within the ring, the price of less than 10,000, and now the inner ring prices can hardly find under 100,000. Also rose more than 10 times times.
Look at the real estate market, of course, also need to look at supply and demand relations, because the market has a supply and demand relationship. and the current national vacancy and inventory room close to billion sets. What does that mean? said that can solve the housing of 100 million households, and affordable housing this year will also develop millions of sets, is expected to end vacant room and inventory room will reach 100 million sets.
We look at developers, at present, many developers have to transfer domestic development to foreign real estate market development, capital also flowed out.
Looking at the land market, the proportion of the land is rising, indicating that the market demand is gradually reduced.
There are many factors we can study, and relevance, we finally found that the real estate market is indeed to enter a turning point, that is, can not be in the big development, and may even enter the fall cycle.
The elevator market is now more than 80% dependent on the real estate market, although the old staircase replacement and retrofitting of older buildings add elevators, but this is also the market behavior. To change the elevator from 15 years ago to the installation of statistics, according to the Chinese elevator network data response, 15 years ago in 2000, the national elevator production only million units, and ten years ago there were only more than 40,000 units. In 2013, it reached 550,000 units, which means that elevator sales and marketing to the real estate market rely on a great degree. The replacement of the old ladder, in the next five years, the highest annual volume of not more than 50,000 units.
Elevator manufacturing enterprises in China is close to 700, and the actual total capacity of 750,000 units per year output. The remaining capacity is 200,000 units in 2013. So if the elevator sales in 2015 down to 500,000 units or lower, the domestic elevator market will?
We look at the development of the elevator industry history, in China elevator market and Enterprise is the beginning of the 50 's construction, into the early 70, only 14 of the national elevator industrial production license, 70 generation of elevator sales less than thousand units. Into the late 90, the elevator sales into the million annual output, and last year reached 550,000 units.
According to the author of the macro market and the real estate market and the elevator market analysis, the Chinese elevator industry will also enter a period of adjustment, and this adjustment period is not only the elevator overall production and marketing adjustment, but will some backward enterprises and small enterprises have a major blow.
If the real estate market adjustment period arrives, then the elevator industry adjustment also will arrive. But to our development has no characteristic, the brand effect is poor, the technical level backwardness elevator enterprise will have the fatal blow.
In a family we need to think about how to live better in the future, and a business to see how to survive in the future. When the real estate market inflection point, if we do not think the elevator industry itself, not to prepare, there is no strategy to deal with, then we will not be able to develop, or even survive.
Of course, it's possible to be alarmist, but being prepared is more important.
The rapid development of China's elevator industry to today's world production and marketing first, but we do not actually surpass the international machine products, has always been with Europe and the United States behind Japan to develop the elevator industry has not adapted to the future development. China must have the world's leading elevator technology, such as the fourth generation without engine room elevator the same machine technology, we need to make a breakthrough in thinking, need to research and development, we need to work together.
Facing the grim economic situation and the turning point of the real estate market, are you ready to deal with it? Are you ready to deal with your business? Are our industry colleagues ready to deal with it?